How It Works

Bellweather has built a suite of products that are based on the same core technology: a model that analyzes the relationship between weather and energy metrics such as hourly load or service outages. We call this “weather response analysis.”  Traditional methods of weather response analysis use monthly data and linear coefficients to define the relationship between energy and weather. This method works so long as weather is relatively "normal", but the truth is that weather is increasingly extreme and unusual. Bellweather is the only technology on the market today designed to model any type of weather.  Bellweather works because it defines the energy / weather relationship as it really is: a complex, non-linear shape. This is accomplished by building a framework based on hourly observations and modeling weather response with thousands of polynomial equations. 

Weather is the most important and complex variable in any energy analysis.  (Even for industrial and large commercial users, who are less weather-sensitive than most users, weather is an important driver of energy consumption.) Once we have accounted for weather, we can expand the analysis to include other relevant variables like US GDP, SEER ratings and industrial production cycles.  Our experience shows that by building an analysis on top of our cutting-edge weather model,  other variables are always analyzed more easily and with greater accuracy.

We'd love to share our white paper with you.  Contact us to request a copy.